Additionally, the article highlights the collaboration with the prediction platform Metaculus, providing aggregated forecasts for various predictions. It notes the complexities of American politics, such as the challenges of abolishing the Department of Education through reconciliation, and the improbability of significant changes to the ACA. The piece concludes with a focus on international issues, including Israel's political landscape under Netanyahu and the ongoing war in Ukraine, suggesting a possible pause in fighting in 2025.
Key takeaways:
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- The Future Perfect staff makes annual predictions with attached probabilities to indicate confidence levels.
- There is skepticism about Congress passing a tariff bill that aligns with Trump's ideas, despite his presidential authority to impose tariffs.
- Repealing the Affordable Care Act remains unlikely due to narrow Republican majorities and past failures to pass significant cuts.
- There is a prediction of a durable pause in the Ukraine war in 2025, with expected peace talks influenced by the change in U.S. presidency.