The survey also highlights varying opinions on the effects of AI, with 52% of respondents expecting positive effects and 27% foreseeing more negative impacts. Specific risks identified include disinformation, deepfakes, and AI-assisted population control by authoritarian rulers. However, there was a broad consensus (70%) on the need for research into mitigating potential AI risks. The survey, conducted in October 2023, is based on responses from 2,778 attendees at six leading AI conferences.
Key takeaways:
- The 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI reveals that the pace of AI development is expected to continue accelerating, with a probability of at least 50% that AI systems will reach several milestones by 2028.
- There is a wide range of views on the development of AI, with 35% supporting either a slower or faster development compared to the current pace, and 27% believing the current pace is appropriate.
- More than half of the respondents expect positive effects of AI on humanity, while 27% foresee more negative effects, including potential extinction of humanity.
- There is a broad consensus (70%) that research into mitigating potential risks of AI systems should be a higher priority.