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A survey of 2,778 researchers shows how fragmented the AI science community is

Jan 05, 2024 - the-decoder.com
The "2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI" reveals that the pace of AI development is expected to accelerate, with a 50% probability of AI systems reaching several milestones by 2028. These include creating a payment processing website, a song indistinguishable from a well-known musician, and a comprehensive language model autonomously. The survey also predicts that an AI will write a New York Times bestseller by 2030, and that machines could outperform humans in all tasks by 2047.

The survey also highlights varying opinions on the effects of AI, with 52% of respondents expecting positive effects and 27% foreseeing more negative impacts. Specific risks identified include disinformation, deepfakes, and AI-assisted population control by authoritarian rulers. However, there was a broad consensus (70%) on the need for research into mitigating potential AI risks. The survey, conducted in October 2023, is based on responses from 2,778 attendees at six leading AI conferences.

Key takeaways:

  • The 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI reveals that the pace of AI development is expected to continue accelerating, with a probability of at least 50% that AI systems will reach several milestones by 2028.
  • There is a wide range of views on the development of AI, with 35% supporting either a slower or faster development compared to the current pace, and 27% believing the current pace is appropriate.
  • More than half of the respondents expect positive effects of AI on humanity, while 27% foresee more negative effects, including potential extinction of humanity.
  • There is a broad consensus (70%) that research into mitigating potential risks of AI systems should be a higher priority.
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