A survey of 2,778 researchers shows how fragmented the AI science community is

The "2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI" reveals that the pace of AI development is expected to accelerate, with a 50% probability of AI systems reaching several milestones by 2028. These include creating a payment processing website, a song indistinguishable from a well-known musician, and a comprehensive language model autonomously. The survey also predicts that an AI will write a New York Times bestseller by 2030, and that machines could outperform humans in all tasks by 2047.

The survey also highlights varying opinions on the effects of AI, with 52% of respondents expecting positive effects and 27% foreseeing more negative impacts. Specific risks identified include disinformation, deepfakes, and AI-assisted population control by authoritarian rulers. However, there was a broad consensus (70%) on the need for research into mitigating potential AI risks. The survey, conducted in October 2023, is based on responses from 2,778 attendees at six leading AI conferences.

Key takeaways

The 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI reveals that the pace of AI development is expected to continue accelerating, with a probability of at least 50% that AI systems will reach several milestones by 2028.
There is a wide range of views on the development of AI, with 35% supporting either a slower or faster development compared to the current pace, and 27% believing the current pace is appropriate.
More than half of the respondents expect positive effects of AI on humanity, while 27% foresee more negative effects, including potential extinction of humanity.
There is a broad consensus (70%) that research into mitigating potential risks of AI systems should be a higher priority.

A survey of 2,778 researchers shows how fragmented the AI science community is

Key takeaways

Discussion (0)