AI vs. pro gambler's $1 million March Madness bet coming down to Duke and Houston
Apr 04, 2025 - financialpost.com
A $1 million March Madness bet between professional gambler Sean Perry and the AI platform 4C Predictions hinges on the outcome of the Duke-Houston game in the Final Four. Perry, who chose Duke as a 5 1/2-point favorite, has missed 13 picks, while the AI, which selected Houston, has missed only 10 out of the first 60 games. Both correctly predicted all the Final Four teams. Despite AI's higher accuracy, the final outcome depends on the increasing value of picks as the tournament progresses. Alan Levy, who runs 4C, is confident in AI's performance, noting it ranks in the 95th percentile of human predictions.
The tournament has favored predictable outcomes, benefiting both Perry and the AI, who avoided picking upsets. Both had Memphis and St. John’s advancing further, but those teams were eliminated early. Levy is considering Perry's proposal to raise the stakes to $10 million, expressing optimism about AI's chances. The AI's performance has exceeded expectations, with leaders in major bracket pools achieving similar success rates. The outcome of the Duke-Houston game will determine the winner of this high-stakes wager.
Key takeaways:
A $1 million March Madness bet between a pro gambler and an AI platform will be decided by the Duke-Houston game.
The pro gambler, Sean Perry, picked Duke, while the AI platform, 4C Predictions, picked Houston.
Both Perry and the AI have performed well, with Perry missing 13 picks and the AI missing 10 out of the first 60 games.
Despite AI's better performance, the outcome could still favor Perry due to the increasing value of picks as the tournament progresses.
