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Apple’s stock at risk of outpacing reality amid AI rally

Jun 21, 2024 - financialpost.com
Apple Inc.'s record-breaking rally has raised questions about whether its artificial intelligence (AI) strategy justifies the stock's valuation. The shares surged to an all-time high last week after the company unveiled new AI features, briefly making Apple the world's most valuable company. However, the stock's valuation is around 30 times forward earnings, a level it has struggled to maintain in the past. While investors are hopeful for faster revenue growth and higher returns, there are concerns about when this boost will materialize.

The rollout of new AI offerings may be slower than investors want, possibly stretching into 2025. Wall Street expects Apple's revenue growth to increase in the second half of 2024, but end the year at just one per cent before accelerating to seven per cent in 2025. In the iPhone segment, revenue is forecast to slip in the last two quarters of 2024. Despite the high valuation, some analysts believe there is room for Apple shares to grow, citing the potential of new AI features to drive an iPhone upgrade cycle and boost earnings.

Key takeaways:

  • Apple Inc.'s recent rally has led to skepticism about whether its artificial intelligence strategy justifies the stock’s valuation.
  • The company's valuation is around 30 times forward earnings, a level it has struggled to maintain in the past.
  • Investors are hopeful that new AI features will spur a massive upgrade cycle among users, but questions remain about when this boost will arrive.
  • Despite the high valuation, some analysts see room for Apple shares to grow, with JPMorgan analysts recently boosting their price target to US$245 from US$225.
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