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Are large language models on the trajectory of word processing or digital advertising?

Mar 30, 2024 - davekarpf.substack.com
The article discusses the comparison of ChatGPT, a language model developed by OpenAI, to early versions of transformative technologies like VisiCalc and Microsoft Word. The author argues that while these early technologies had bugs that were eventually fixed, the issues with AI like ChatGPT may not be as easily resolved. The author suggests that the problems with AI are more akin to the issues with microtargeted advertising, which despite decades of development and promises of improvement, still delivers poor results.

The author questions whether the marketplace for AI will follow the path of word processors, which improved over time, or targeted advertisements, which have remained flawed. The author suggests that the current market and regulatory environment may not incentivize the improvement of AI technologies. The author concludes by expressing skepticism that AI technologies like ChatGPT will improve significantly in the next five years without regulatory intervention.

Key takeaways:

  • Steven Levy compares the rise of ChatGPT to the trajectory of VisiCalc, the 'killer app' of personal computing, in his newsletter.
  • The author disagrees with the comparison, arguing that the 'bugs' in AI like ChatGPT are not like those in early Word and VisiCalc, but more akin to the issues with microtargeted advertising.
  • Despite the hype and promises of improvement, the author believes that the issues with AI will not be resolved in the near future, much like the persistent problems with online advertising.
  • The author suggests that the future of AI will depend on the current state of capitalism and whether market forces will drive improvements or lead to the hollowing out of industries and poorer services.
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