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'Big Short' traders say AI is crowded, looking to another area for returns

Jan 29, 2025 - markets.businessinsider.com
Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel, known for their roles in "The Big Short," are steering clear of the crowded AI market and instead focusing on cheaper foreign stocks, particularly in emerging markets like Brazil and China. They believe these markets offer significant opportunities, especially if U.S. President Donald Trump's policies lead to a weaker dollar, which could drive investors towards international markets. Despite some AI exposure, their primary strategy is to find undervalued global stocks.

The investors argue that Wall Street's negative sentiment towards Chinese stocks has overshadowed their potential profitability. They anticipate that emerging markets will gain traction if Trump's agenda of American exceptionalism results in a weaker dollar. This shift could prompt investors to consider emerging market stocks over more popular U.S. options. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF has seen modest gains this year, reflecting the cautious optimism in these markets amid concerns over U.S. tariffs.

Key takeaways:

  • Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel, known for "The Big Short," are avoiding the crowded AI market and focusing on cheaper foreign stocks.
  • They see opportunities in emerging markets, particularly in Brazil and China, which helped Seawolf Capital achieve a 66% return in 2024.
  • Daniel believes that if Trump's policies lead to a weaker dollar, emerging markets will become more attractive to investors.
  • The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF has increased by 1.24% this year, despite uncertainties from Trump's trade policies.
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