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'Bond King' Bill Gross warns stocks are too pricey, economy will slump

Aug 14, 2023 - markets.businessinsider.com
Bill Gross, co-founder of Pimco and known as the "Bond King", has warned that stocks and long-dated bonds are overpriced and the US economy is set to slump. Gross argues that the expected return from stocks and risk-free investments such as 10-year Treasuries is virtually the same, with equities priced at historic highs relative to company earnings. He also cautioned that the full impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes from nearly zero to over 5% since last spring has not yet been felt.

Gross also expressed concern over short-dated Treasuries offering higher returns than longer-term ones, stating that a finance-based economy cannot thrive under such conditions. He predicted a slowdown in the economy following the use of significant fiscal stimulus in recent years. He also warned that regional banks could face more trouble following the Silicon Valley Bank incident earlier this year, where lenders' bond portfolios slumped in value after the Fed hiked rates.

Key takeaways:

  • Bill Gross, known as the 'Bond King', has warned that stocks and long-dated bonds are overpriced and the US economy will slump.
  • Gross believes that the market is overvalued due to low equity risk premium and high PE ratios.
  • He also warned of the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, which he believes have not yet been fully felt in the economy.
  • Gross also predicted that regional banks could face more trouble following the Silicon Valley Bank fiasco earlier this year, particularly if they have not reduced their duration risk.
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