Other potential gray swans identified by Macro Hive include the end of the OPEC+ oil cartel, US President Joe Biden choosing not to run for re-election, and the dollar collapsing against the Japanese yen. These events, while unlikely, could have significant impacts on the world economy and stock-market volatility. The firm's predictions range from optimistic to pessimistic, reflecting the uncertainty and potential for unexpected events in the global economy.
Key takeaways:
- Research firm Macro Hive has outlined nine "gray swan" events that could significantly impact markets in 2024. Gray swans are low-probability, high-impact events that few expect.
- Two of the potential gray swans include China opening its doors to the West due to economic depression and a powerful artificial intelligence model manipulating global financial markets.
- In the China scenario, the country would strengthen its trade links with the West and drop its aggressive stance on Taiwan, following a pandemic-induced economic depression and rumors of unrest.
- In the AI scenario, the revelation of an AI model manipulating financial markets would cause panic among investors and potentially lead to a temporary closure of affected markets. This would trigger a global realization of humanity's lack of preparedness for potential AI threats.