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Clouded Judgement 6.14.24 - Is Seat Based Pricing Dead?

Jun 19, 2024 - cloudedjudgement.substack.com
The article discusses the potential shift in the cloud software industry from seat-based pricing to consumption-based pricing, particularly as AI continues to advance. The author argues that as AI allows users to do "more with less," traditional application software providers may find themselves undercharging for the value they deliver and seeing their margins degrade. This could lead to a pivot towards consumption-based models, as seen with companies like Zendesk. The author also suggests that as AI takes over more tasks, the importance of user interface may decrease, while the importance of underlying data structure increases.

The article also provides an update on the financial performance of various software companies. It highlights the May inflation update, a summary of quarterly reports, and an update on multiples. The author also discusses the correlation between growth and valuation multiple and provides a comprehensive overview of operating metrics. The author concludes by stating that the future of application software in a world of AI agents probably looks a whole lot more like database software.

Key takeaways:

  • The traditional SaaS business model, which charges a recurring fee based on the number of users, may be disrupted by AI, leading to a shift towards consumption-based pricing.
  • As AI allows customers to do more with fewer people, application software providers may face squeezed margins and lower ACV, prompting a shift to consumption-based models.
  • With the rise of AI, the importance of user interface in software may decrease, while the underlying data structure becomes more crucial. This could lead to a convergence of database and application software.
  • There is a trend of data platform companies becoming application providers, with applications built more for AI agent consumption. This could significantly increase the value of high-quality data infrastructure.
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