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Deepmind's new AI could help forecast extreme weather faster

Nov 15, 2023 - businessinsider.com
Google-owned Deepmind's AI model, GraphCast, has outperformed traditional weather forecasters in accuracy for the first time, according to a peer-reviewed study published in Science. The AI model, trained on 39 years of historical weather data, can produce a 10-day forecast in under a minute and was able to predict Hurricane Lee's landfall three days before rivals. However, Deepmind noted that the model has limitations in dealing with the uncertainty of longer-term weather forecasts.

The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) hailed GraphCast as a significant advancement in the industry. Matthew Chantry, ECMWF machine learning specialist, suggested that once trained on a wider variety of historical data, models like GraphCast could be much cheaper than current methods that rely on powerful supercomputers. He estimated a potential 1,000 times reduction in energy consumption, calling it a "miraculous improvement".

Key takeaways:

  • Deepmind's GraphCast AI can produce an accurate 10-day weather forecast in under a minute, outperforming traditional weather forecasters for the first time.
  • The AI model was able to predict Hurricane Lee's landfall three days before traditional forecasters.
  • Despite its success, the model does have some limitations when dealing with the uncertainty inherent in longer-term weather forecasts.
  • Once trained on a wider variety of historical data, models like GraphCast could be much cheaper than current weather forecasting methods, potentially reducing energy consumption by 1,000 times.
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