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DeepSeek and Ozempic Are Complicating Decarbonization Forecasts

Jan 31, 2025 - financialpost.com
The article discusses the complexities and uncertainties in decarbonization forecasts, highlighting insights from clean energy expert Nat Bullard's annual presentation. Bullard points out that while renewable energy saw record growth in 2024, fossil fuel consumption also increased, complicating the path to net zero. Factors like advancements in AI, exemplified by DeepSeek's energy-efficient models, and the impact of diabetes drugs like Ozempic on food consumption, add layers of unpredictability to energy demand forecasts. Additionally, the article notes challenges in the US energy sector, such as the backlog in connecting new clean energy projects to the grid, and the potential oversupply of lithium-ion batteries due to falling prices and increased production.

The article also touches on the shifting dynamics in the global electric vehicle market, with Chinese manufacturers producing cheaper EVs that are gaining market share in developing regions. This trend, coupled with the potential surplus of batteries, raises questions about the future of used EVs and battery recycling. Furthermore, the piece highlights a perceived retreat from green financing in public statements by major financial institutions, despite the growth of energy transition infrastructure funds. This is exemplified by the change in tone in BlackRock CEO Larry Fink's communications, which have become less focused on climate and ESG topics following political pressures.

Key takeaways:

  • DeepSeek's AI advancements suggest a potential decrease in energy consumption, prompting a reevaluation of future energy demand assumptions.
  • Generative AI and diabetes drugs like Ozempic are adding complexity to decarbonization forecasts, with potential impacts on food consumption and energy use.
  • Chinese electric vehicles are becoming more affordable, leading to increased market penetration and potential oversupply of batteries.
  • Green finance is progressing slowly, with a noticeable shift in public statements from major financial institutions like BlackRock regarding ESG and sustainability.
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