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Did you think it would be easy?

May 06, 2024 - theaiunderwriter.substack.com
The article discusses the hype surrounding General Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) and compares it to previous technological advancements like the internet, GPS, and semiconductors. The author argues that while GenAI is currently subject to a lot of hype and overestimation, it is still in its early stages, much like these previous technologies were in their initial years. The author also mentions Amara's Law, which states that we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate it in the long run, suggesting that GenAI's real impact will be more apparent in the future.

The author believes that GenAI is real and will only improve over time, with models becoming larger and more complex, and researchers finding new ways to train them. The author also differentiates GenAI from other hyped technologies like blockchain and nanotech, stating that GenAI has tangible applications that are being used daily. The article ends by encouraging the reader to ignore the hype and continue building innovative solutions, suggesting that the future of GenAI is promising despite current skepticism.

Key takeaways:

  • The hype around GenAI is a convergence of broad potential applications, significant funding, media excitement, scientific breakthroughs, and commercial interest.
  • Despite the hype, it's important to remember that it's still very early in the development of AI, and many significant technologies (like the Internet and GPS) took time and significant investment before they became widely used.
  • GenAI is subject to a lot of hype, but it's also seeing a lot of innovation and growth, and it's expected to continue improving.
  • Despite the hype and potential overestimation of GenAI's current capabilities, the author believes it's a real and tangible technology that's already being used and will only get better with more use cases and applications.
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