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Google's ex-CEO says AI scaling laws aren't slowing down

Nov 15, 2024 - businessinsider.com
Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt has dismissed concerns about an AI slowdown, stating there's "no evidence" that artificial intelligence scaling laws are stopping. Despite reports that OpenAI and Google are facing a performance plateau with their latest models, Schmidt believes large language models (LLMs) are still "scaling with an ability that is unprecedented" and expects "two or three more turns of the crank of these large models" over the next five years.

His comments come amid a debate in Silicon Valley over the feasibility of developing increasingly advanced models. Recent reports suggest that some of the biggest AI companies are struggling to improve models at the same rate as before. OpenAI's next flagship model, Orion, and Google's upcoming AI model, Gemini, have reportedly shown only moderate improvements, leading to concerns about diminishing returns in AI development.

Key takeaways:

  • Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt stated there's no evidence of an AI slowdown, despite reports of performance plateaus from OpenAI and Google.
  • Schmidt believes that large language models (LLMs) are still scaling at an unprecedented rate and expects two or three more significant improvements over the next five years.
  • Reports suggest that OpenAI's next flagship model, Orion, and Google's AI model Gemini are not showing the expected level of improvement, leading to debates about the feasibility of developing increasingly advanced models.
  • Despite these reports, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman insists that AI models are not reaching a performance plateau, stating, "There is no wall."
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