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GraphCast: AI model for faster and more accurate global weather forecasting

Nov 14, 2023 - deepmind.google
The article introduces GraphCast, a state-of-the-art AI model developed for medium-range weather forecasts. The model, which uses machine learning and Graph Neural Networks, can predict weather conditions up to 10 days in advance with unprecedented accuracy and speed, outperforming the industry standard High Resolution Forecast (HRES). GraphCast can also provide earlier warnings for extreme weather events, such as cyclones, floods, and heatwaves, potentially saving lives through greater preparedness.

GraphCast is already being used by weather agencies, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and its code has been open-sourced to benefit scientists and forecasters worldwide. The model is part of a broader effort to use AI in weather forecasting and climate research, with the aim of addressing major environmental challenges and benefiting billions of people in their everyday lives.

Key takeaways:

  • GraphCast, a state-of-the-art AI model, can make medium-range weather forecasts with unprecedented accuracy and speed, predicting weather conditions up to 10 days in advance more accurately and much faster than the industry gold-standard weather simulation system.
  • GraphCast can also offer earlier warnings of extreme weather events, predicting the tracks of cyclones, identifying atmospheric rivers associated with flood risk, and predicting the onset of extreme temperatures.
  • GraphCast is based on machine learning and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), and makes forecasts at the high resolution of 0.25 degrees longitude/latitude, predicting five Earth-surface variables and six atmospheric variables at each of 37 levels of altitude.
  • GraphCast is now the most accurate 10-day global weather forecasting system in the world, and its code has been open sourced to make AI-powered weather forecasting more accessible, with ECMWF already experimenting with GraphCast’s 10-day forecasts.
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