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HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever Squeezed As Indian Middle Class Struggles

Jan 17, 2025 - ndtvprofit.com
Falling wages and high inflation in India are impacting earnings at HDFC Bank Ltd., Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd., and Hindustan Unilever Ltd. HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank are expected to see increases in bad loans, leading to higher provisions and affecting quarterly profits. Hindustan Unilever is anticipated to experience slowing sales volume growth despite the festive season, attributed to slow wage growth and reduced middle-class spending. The Indian government may cut personal income tax to boost consumption, while banks face challenges in attracting deposits as more people invest in equity funds. This situation is compounded by the central bank's concerns over rising impairments in unsecured retail loans.

In contrast, companies like SK Hynix Inc., Disco Corp., and Nidec Corp. are expected to benefit from strong demand for AI-related products. SK Hynix and Disco are projected to have positive outlooks due to Nvidia's new Blackwell chip product line. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. exceeded quarterly sales estimates, suggesting resilient AI hardware spending. Upcoming earnings reports highlight Kotak Mahindra Bank's challenges due to regulatory restrictions, HDFC Bank's slower profit growth, and Hindustan Unilever's reliance on price increases amid rising raw material costs. Meanwhile, Nidec and Disco are expected to report significant profit growth, driven by AI-related business and memory chip demand.

Key takeaways:

  • Falling wages and high inflation in India are impacting earnings at HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Hindustan Unilever, with banks facing increased bad loans and consumer firms experiencing slowing sales volume growth.
  • India's economic growth forecast has been cut to 6.4%, the weakest since the pandemic, with the government considering a personal income tax cut to boost consumption.
  • Banks are struggling to attract customer deposits as more people invest in equity funds, affecting their ability to expand loan books.
  • Companies like SK Hynix, Disco, and Nidec are seeing positive earnings prospects due to strong demand for AI-related products, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. exceeded sales estimates.
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