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How Accurate Were Our 2023 AI Predictions?

Dec 11, 2023 - forbes.com
The article revisits 10 predictions made for the world of artificial intelligence in 2023, assessing their accuracy. The predictions included the release of GPT-4, running out of data to train large language models, the use of fully driverless cars by the general public, Midjourney raising venture capital funding, a significant change in search, the emergence of humanoid robots, the concept of “LLMOps” becoming trendy, a surge in research projects citing AlphaFold, efforts to build a foundation model for robotics, and billions of dollars of new investment commitments for chip manufacturing facilities in the U.S.

Out of these, eight predictions were correct. GPT-4 was released and became a big deal, we are closer to running out of the world’s supply of text training data, fully driverless cars were used by the public, search changed significantly with the rise of conversational search, humanoid robots began to go mainstream, the concept of “LLMOps” emerged, the number of research projects citing AlphaFold surged, and efforts to build a foundation model for robotics were undertaken. However, Midjourney did not raise venture capital funding and there were not many billions of dollars of new investment commitments for chip manufacturing facilities in the U.S.

Key takeaways:

  • OpenAI's GPT-4 was released in 2023 and has become the most powerful large language model, with an annualized revenue of over $1 billion.
  • There is a growing concern about running out of text data to train large language models, with the largest dataset currently standing at 30 trillion tokens.
  • Alphabet’s Waymo and GM’s Cruise made driverless car services available to the public in 2023, with Waymo completing over 700,000 driverless rides.
  • 2023 saw the rise of humanoid robots, with Tesla's Optimus program leading the way and several startups attracting significant funding.
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