However, the flights that attempted to avoid contrails burned 2% more fuel. Despite this, the total fuel impact could be as low as 0.3% across an airline’s flights, suggesting that contrails could be avoided at scale for around $5-25/ton CO2e using existing predictions. Google plans to continue research and development to automate avoidance, target high impact contrails, and improve satellite-based verification, aiming to make contrail avoidance a reality in the coming years.
Key takeaways:
- Google Research, American Airlines, and Breakthrough Energy have used AI and satellite imagery to develop contrail forecast maps, helping pilots choose routes that avoid creating contrails, which contribute to global warming.
- Contrails, the thin white lines seen behind airplanes, account for approximately 35% of aviation's global warming impact, according to the 2022 IPCC report.
- In a test involving 70 flights over six months, pilots using Google's AI-based predictions were able to reduce contrails by 54%, demonstrating that commercial flights can avoid contrails and reduce their climate impact.
- While flights attempting to avoid contrails burned 2% additional fuel, the total fuel impact could be as low as 0.3% across an airline’s flights, suggesting that contrail avoidance could be a cost-effective measure to reduce warming.