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How big is the stock market's America bubble?

Mar 04, 2025 - financialpost.com
The article discusses the significant dominance of the U.S. stock market, which now accounts for nearly two-thirds of the global equity market value, largely driven by the tech sector and companies linked to artificial intelligence. This dominance has raised concerns among investors about the risks of over-concentration, as a global portfolio tracker would inherently have a large portion invested in the U.S., particularly in Silicon Valley. The U.S. market's growth since the 2010s has been propelled by consistent returns, with the S&P 500 delivering average annual returns of about 14% since 2010. However, recent pullbacks in tech shares have highlighted the nervousness around high valuations, drawing parallels to historical market bubbles.

The article also notes that the U.S. market's concentration in a few tech giants, known as the "Magnificent Seven," has contributed to its high valuation, with these companies holding a significant portion of the S&P 500's market value. While some investors argue that the strong earnings growth of these companies justifies their valuations, others are concerned about the potential for a bubble similar to the dotcom era. The article concludes by emphasizing the importance of diversification, as the current U.S. and tech sector dominance may leave investors with too many eggs in one basket, despite the historical performance of dominant industries like railroads.

Key takeaways:

  • The U.S. stock market accounts for nearly two-thirds of the global equity market value, raising concerns about over-reliance on the tech sector and AI investments.
  • Historically, the U.S. has been the largest stock market, but its dominance has fluctuated, with Japan briefly surpassing it during the 1980s asset bubble.
  • Investors are worried about the concentration of market value in a few tech giants, with the "Magnificent Seven" holding a significant portion of the S&P 500's market value.
  • While some investors argue that the U.S. market's resilience and tech sector strength justify current valuations, others draw parallels to past market bubbles, urging diversification.
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