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I spent a year and $5,700 to see if ChatGPT can beat the market (S&P 500)

May 27, 2024 - news.ycombinator.com
The article discusses an experiment conducted by the author who used Large Language Models (LLMs) powered autonomous agents, named The GPT Investor, to invest in the stock market. The goal was to see if these agents could outperform the market, specifically the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ($SPY). The author used platforms like ChatGPT, Godmode, and BabyAGI UI to generate stock recommendations and conducted 19 experiments, investing CAD $300 in each, totaling CAD $5,700.

The results showed that The GPT Investor had a total return of 11.54% (CAD $658.20), outperforming $SPY which had a return of 8.89% (CAD $507.10). The GPT Investor's return was approximately 29.78% better than $SPY's. When comparing the two LLMs used, GPT-4 had an average return of 15.54%, significantly better than GPT-3.5's return of 6.05%. The author suggests that as LLMs become more powerful, the returns of The GPT Investor should improve further.

Key takeaways:

  • The GPT Investor, an autonomous agent powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4, was used to invest in the stock market with the aim of beating the market, specifically the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ($SPY).
  • A total of CAD $5,700 was invested across 19 experiments, using platforms like ChatGPT, Godmode, and BabyAGI UI to generate stock recommendations. The GPT Investor recommended 31 stocks in total.
  • The GPT Investor achieved a total return of 11.54% (CAD $658.20), outperforming $SPY which had a return of 8.89% (CAD $507.10). This means the GPT Investor's portfolio return was approximately 29.78% better than $SPY's return.
  • The GPT Investor used two versions of LLMs, GPT-4 and GPT-3.5, for its experiments. GPT-4 yielded an average return of 15.54%, significantly outperforming GPT-3.5 which had an average return of 6.05%. This suggests that as LLMs become more powerful, the returns of The GPT Investor could improve further.
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