The author suggests that OpenAI's only hope is to be the first to achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), but doubts their ability to do so due to a perceived brain drain and shift in focus. They also highlight the immense costs associated with AI development and the potential for chip shortages, likening the situation to the oil industry. The author concludes by expressing concern about OpenAI's future, especially if their next models underperform, and believes that every day without AGI allows other tech giants to close the gap.
Key takeaways:
- OpenAI unveiled its latest flagship model, GPT-4o, and is nearing a deal to put ChatGPT’s technology into the iPhone.
- The author is bearish on OpenAI, believing it will lose to Apple, Google, and Meta in both software and hardware, and that its only hope is to be the first to AGI (Artificial General Intelligence).
- Big Tech companies are investing heavily in AI hardware and data centers, with Meta, Microsoft, and Google spending billions in capital expenditures.
- The author suggests that OpenAI's focus on consumer-facing products and the departure of key researchers indicate a loss of confidence in their ability to build AGI.