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Microsoft's Mustafa Suleyman says Sam Altman's AGI timeline is plausible — but not probable

Dec 10, 2024 - businessinsider.com
Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman predicts that artificial general intelligence (AGI) is more than two years away, contrasting with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's belief that AGI is achievable with current hardware. Suleyman suggests a timeline of five to seven years, considering each generation of technology takes 18 to 24 months. He emphasizes the high uncertainty surrounding AGI predictions and criticizes the dramatization of AGI, which detracts from focusing on specific capabilities.

Definitions of AGI vary, with Suleyman describing it as a general-purpose learning system capable of performing well across all human-level tasks, including physical labor. In contrast, OpenAI defines AGI as a system that outperforms humans in most economically valuable work. Despite differing views, Suleyman remains confident in Microsoft's investment in OpenAI, acknowledging minor tensions but expressing optimism about their partnership's success.

Key takeaways:

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  • Mustafa Suleyman, Microsoft AI CEO, predicts AGI is more than two years away, contrasting with Sam Altman's more optimistic timeline.
  • Suleyman emphasizes a broad human-level learning system as his definition of AGI, while OpenAI defines it as a system outperforming humans in economically valuable work.
  • Suleyman believes AGI is plausible within the next five to seven years, considering the rapid advancement of technology generations.
  • Despite differing views on AGI timelines, Suleyman remains confident in Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI, highlighting the potential for mutual success.
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