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Neal Stephenson's Most Stunning Prediction

Feb 07, 2024 - theatlantic.com
The article discusses the prescient nature of Neal Stephenson's science fiction novels, particularly "The Diamond Age: Or, a Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer," which predicted the rise of AI and chatbots. The novel features a magical book that acts as a personal tutor for a young girl, adapting to her learning style, which is compared to today's advanced chatbots. However, Stephenson expresses concern over the current state of AI, stating that it's not an oracle but a statistics engine that creates sentences that sound accurate.

Stephenson also discusses the potential misuse of AI in education and the arts, noting that AI often benefits from the uncredited work of human artists. He also highlights the potential socioeconomic implications of AI, as the technology is expensive to run and may not be accessible to all. Stephenson compares the current state of AI to the early days of the transistor, suggesting that we are still in the early stages of understanding how AI will transform society.

Key takeaways:

  • Science fiction writer Neal Stephenson's novels have been remarkably prescient about technological advancements, including the concept of the metaverse, cryptocurrency, and AI chatbots.
  • Stephenson's 1995 novel, "The Diamond Age: Or, a Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer", features a book that acts as a personal tutor and mentor for a young girl, adapting to her learning style, which is similar to the concept of personalized AI chatbots.
  • Despite his early optimism about AI, Stephenson is more pessimistic about today's AI, describing it as a "statistics engine that creates sentences that sound accurate" rather than an oracle.
  • Stephenson believes we are in the early stages of AI, comparing it to the invention of transistors, and anticipates that the technology will transform society in unpredictable ways.
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