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No one can figure out what Nvidia’s revenues are actually going to be—not even the AI chip leader's own executives

Jun 23, 2024 - fortune.com
Nvidia Corp., currently the most expensive stock in the S&P 500 Index, is struggling to predict its future revenues due to the unpredictable demand for its chips in the AI boom. Despite this, the company has consistently exceeded its own sales forecasts, with revenue surpassing the midpoint of the company's forecast by an average of 13% since April 2023. Analysts are finding it challenging to model for Nvidia due to the uncertainty of supply when demand is booming.

Despite the uncertainty, Nvidia's shares have gained 156% this year, briefly making it the world's most valuable company at $3.34 trillion. However, there are concerns that the degree to which Nvidia surpasses Wall Street's growth expectations will soon start subsiding due to the company's sheer size, which could make it harder to justify the shares' price tag. Nvidia is projected to deliver a profit of $14.7 billion on sales of $28.4 billion in the current quarter, up 137% and 111%, respectively, from the same period a year ago.

Key takeaways:

  • Nvidia Corp. is currently the most expensive stock in the S&P 500 Index, but its future revenues are uncertain due to the unpredictable nature of the AI boom.
  • Despite this uncertainty, Nvidia's sales have consistently exceeded the company's own forecasts, with revenue beating projections by an average of 13% since April 2023.
  • Analysts are struggling to predict Nvidia's future performance, but many are raising their price targets due to the company's strong growth. For instance, Melius analyst Ben Reitzes raised his price target on Nvidia for the fifth time this year, to $160 from $125.
  • Nvidia briefly overtook Microsoft Corp. to become the world's most valuable company at $3.34 trillion, but its shares have since fallen 6.7%, erasing more than $200 billion in market value.
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