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Nvidia earnings have analysts optimistic the DeepSeek selloff was just a blip

Feb 25, 2025 - qz.com
Nvidia is expected to surpass expectations in its upcoming fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report, despite recent challenges from the Chinese AI startup DeepSeek. Analysts predict Nvidia will report $38.1 billion in revenue, as the company ramps up its Blackwell chips. DeepSeek's release of its cost-effective AI model, DeepSeek-V3, led to a significant drop in Nvidia's stock value, but analysts remain optimistic about Nvidia's long-term prospects. The tech giants, including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft, continue to increase their spending on AI infrastructure, viewing it as a long-term investment.

Concerns remain about Nvidia's gross margins due to potential overheating issues with the Blackwell chipset, but analysts still expect the company to deliver strong results. U.S. export controls on China could impact Nvidia and other chipmakers, as Chinese firms increase orders for Nvidia's H20 chips. Despite these challenges, Nvidia's guidance for the fiscal first quarter is anticipated to be $42 billion, indicating confidence in its future performance. The market appears less worried about capital expenditure cuts, as significant investments continue from major tech companies.

Key takeaways:

  • Nvidia is expected to beat earnings expectations and raise its outlook as it ramps up its Blackwell chips, despite previous stock value losses due to competition from DeepSeek.
  • DeepSeek's AI models, which are cost-effective and competitive with those from OpenAI and Meta, have raised questions about Big Tech's spending on AI, but major companies continue to increase their capital expenditures.
  • There are concerns about Nvidia's gross margins due to potential overheating issues with the Blackwell chipset, but analysts still expect the company to perform well.
  • Chinese AI firms are increasing orders of Nvidia's H20 chips, designed to comply with export controls, as demand rises for lower-cost AI models like those from DeepSeek.
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