Nvidia stock crash: $600 billion sell-off could be followed by larger pullback
Jan 28, 2025 - markets.businessinsider.com
Nassim Taleb, author of "Black Swan" and advisor at Universa Investments, suggests that Nvidia's recent 17% sell-off could be the start of a much larger market pullback. He argues that the decline, which erased nearly $600 billion from Nvidia's market cap, is minor compared to the stock's significant rise in recent years. Taleb views this as a small setback and a sign of the market's fragility, highlighting the heavy concentration of gains in a few tech stocks like Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Broadcom. He warns that this could be the beginning of a broader market adjustment as investors come to terms with the reality of market volatility and the limitations of tech stocks.
The sell-off was partly fueled by DeepSeek, a Chinese startup with an AI model that rivals US peers, raising concerns about the sustainability of the AI trade in the US. Taleb points out that investors have overlooked key risks such as stretched valuations and heavy AI spending by large-cap tech firms. Mark Spitznagel, Universa Investments' chief investment officer, likens the recent tech stock surge to the dot-com bubble, suggesting that the market is in the "greatest bubble in human history."
Key takeaways:
Nvidia's 17% sell-off could signal a larger pullback, potentially two or three times bigger, according to Nassim Taleb.
The market rout, fueled by DeepSeek, exposed the fragility of the market, with Nvidia's decline being a minor setback given its recent rise.
Taleb highlighted the concentration of gains in a few tech stocks, warning of underestimated volatility and referring to them as "gray swans."
Concerns over stretched valuations and heavy AI spending by large-cap US tech firms have been revealed, with comparisons to the dot-com bubble.
