Nvidia stock price outlook: Analyst says shares have peaked after Q4 earnings

Nvidia's stock, after a significant 1,776% gain over five years, appears to be peaking, according to DA Davidson tech analyst Gil Luria. Despite Nvidia's fiscal year 2025 revenue more than doubling to $130.5 billion, growth is slowing, with Q4 revenue growth at its lowest in nearly two years. Luria highlights challenges such as peak customer spending on AI chips, increased competition from China, and fluctuating profit margins due to frequent new product releases. Major customers like Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon have likely peaked their spending, and Chinese competition is intensifying, particularly with Huawei's GPU chips gaining traction.

Nvidia's profit margins are also under pressure, with expectations of a gross margin of about 71% in the first quarter due to the production ramp of its Blackwell GPUs. Despite these concerns, Luria maintains a "Neutral" rating on Nvidia with a $135 price target. Following the earnings report, Nvidia's stock fell about 4% to $126.49, reflecting investor concerns over the company's future growth trajectory.

Key takeaways

Nvidia's stock has experienced a significant increase of 1,776% over five years, but growth is expected to slow down according to analyst Gil Luria.
Peak demand for Nvidia's AI chips is a concern, as major customers like Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon may have reached their maximum spending levels.
Increased competition from China, particularly from companies like Huawei, poses a challenge to Nvidia's market share.
Nvidia's profit margins are fluctuating due to the frequent release of new GPU chips, impacting financial stability.

Nvidia stock price outlook: Analyst says shares have peaked after Q4 earnings

Key takeaways

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