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Paul Singer's Elliott Management bets against Nvidia after calling it a 'bubble' and saying AI is 'overhyped'

Feb 18, 2025 - businessinsider.com
Elliott Management, led by billionaire investor Paul Singer, placed significant bets against Nvidia by purchasing put options on 1.45 million shares, with a notional value of approximately $195 million as of December 31. The firm also held substantial put positions on the Invesco QQQ ETF and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, both of which include Nvidia as a major constituent. This strategy resulted in at least $600 million in downside exposure to Nvidia, directly or indirectly. Elliott's actions align with its previous statements to clients, suggesting that Nvidia's stock was in a "bubble" and that the demand for its graphics chips, driven by AI, might not be sustainable.

Elliott's broader investment strategy includes hedging risks on long positions like Southwest Airlines and Pinterest by betting against major US companies. Despite its bearish stance on Nvidia, Elliott's US stock portfolio was valued at about $9 billion at the end of December, with significant stakes in companies such as Triple Flag Precious Metals and Suncor Energy. The firm's investment decisions are based on its analysis of market conditions, but the exact details of its put options, such as strike prices and maturities, remain undisclosed. Elliott has rarely disclosed positions in Nvidia, with the last known holding being 5,000 shares sold within three months in 2024.

Key takeaways:

  • Elliott Management bet against Nvidia using put options, with at least $600 million in downside exposure to the chipmaker.
  • The firm also held significant put options on the Invesco QQQ ETF and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, indirectly increasing its exposure to Nvidia.
  • Elliott Management previously described Nvidia as being in a "bubble" and AI as "overhyped," questioning the sustainability of demand for Nvidia's graphics chips.
  • Elliott's US stock portfolio was worth about $9 billion at the end of December, with major positions in Triple Flag Precious Metals, Southwest Airlines, and Suncor Energy.
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