In the section on self-driving cars, Brooks discusses the shift in definition from fully autonomous vehicles to those requiring remote human intervention, which affects the economic viability of such technologies. He highlights the failure of past predictions about self-driving cars and the safety concerns that have arisen. Brooks argues that the promise of self-driving cars has hindered infrastructure development that could have benefited all drivers and questions whether the hype will lead to a centralized transportation system controlled by a few companies.
Key takeaways:
- The author plans to update their predictions annually until 2050 and will introduce a new set of predictions for 2026 to 2036 due to decreasing density of due dates.
- The hype around AI, machine learning, and robotics distorts public perception and investment, often favoring untested ideas with large payoffs over sustainable businesses.
- Self-driving cars have not met the initial expectations of full autonomy, often requiring remote human intervention, which challenges the economic viability of such systems.
- Despite significant progress in AI, the author argues that we are not on the verge of replacing humans in various jobs, and past predictions of AI's capabilities have been overly optimistic.