The author argues that these trends will result from various factors such as the AI boom, alternative education paths, the return to office work, and the economic pressures of inflated startup valuations. The consolidation in the venture capital industry is expected due to the influx of free cash leading to overvalued startups and an increase in investment managers. The rise of women executives is attributed to a new generation of younger women taking leadership roles in various tech sectors.
Key takeaways:
- The author predicts six trends for venture capital in the coming year, including the AI bubble bursting due to outpacing computing capacity, a devaluation of elite credentials, a resurgence of San Francisco as a tech hub, a shift towards profitability over unicorn status, consolidation in the VC industry, and an increase in women executives.
- AI startups are struggling to access and afford the computing power necessary to scale their applications, creating an unfair advantage for incumbents with existing customer bases and unique data.
- Alternative education paths are becoming more popular, providing financial independence and hard skills that employers are looking for, which could lead to a healthier economic ecosystem and a boost for the American middle class.
- Despite the rise of remote work during the pandemic, the author believes that the benefits of in-person collaboration will lead to a return to the office, particularly in tech hubs like San Francisco.