FutureSearch bases its predictions on the analysis of similar past events and the historical actions of key individuals. For instance, the 75% chance of TikTok selling if forced to comes from the outcome of similar events like Grindr in 2019. The 20% chance of TikTok overturning the ban in court is based on a model where only 13% of similar cases rule in favor of the company.
Key takeaways:
- FutureSearch predicts that Biden will sign the TikTok ban bill, the Commerce Secretary will start the 12-month clock, and TikTok will challenge the ruling but is unlikely to win.
- If TikTok loses, it is likely to succeed in selling to a US company, with the sale estimated to be between $30-50B.
- Walmart and Oracle are not expected to bid again, with Microsoft, Amazon, and a consortium led by Susquehanna or Steven Mnuchin as the top contenders.
- FutureSearch's predictions are based on outcomes of similar events, statements and historical actions of key people, and a model estimating the likelihood of a company winning in court.