Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, estimates a 5% year-on-year decrease in global smartphone volumes in 2023, but expects momentum to rebuild in 2024 and 2025 due to new product launches. It predicts global smartphone shipments to rise 3% to 1.186 billion in 2024 and another 5% to 1.209 billion in 2025. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley's projections contradict the consensus view that smartphones face similar challenges as personal computers did over the last decade.
Key takeaways:
- Smartphone sales are projected to rebound starting in 2024, according to reports by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, despite warnings of a prolonged slump in the mobile sector.
- New on-device AI capabilities are expected to drive the smartphone turnaround, with companies like Apple, Vivo, Xiaomi, and Samsung expressing optimism about AI's potential.
- Goldman Sachs estimates that global smartphone volumes will dip by 5% in 2023, but momentum will rebuild in 2024 and 2025, with shipments rising 3% in 2024 and another 5% in 2025.
- Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs disagree with consensus views that smartphones face similar threats as personal computers, arguing that replacement cycles and use cases still favor mobile phones.