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Some investors bet against Nvidia, expecting AI bubble to burst

Jun 07, 2024 - theregister.com
Nvidia, the GPU giant, is currently experiencing a surge in its share price due to the generative AI wave, with its valuation peaking at $3.012 trillion this week, briefly surpassing Apple and coming second only to Microsoft. However, some investors are betting that Nvidia's share price will soon fall, with short bets against the company standing at about $34.4 billion, almost double that of Apple. Despite a recent 2.6% drop in share price, Nvidia's market valuation remains at an impressive $2.93 trillion.

Some industry experts predict that Nvidia will eventually surpass Microsoft in terms of market cap, as it continues to boost revenue with more of its premium-priced accelerators coming online. However, others argue that few companies can sustain above-average growth rates for more than a year or two, suggesting Nvidia's fall is imminent. This sentiment is supported by predictions that the AI-fueled stock market bubble will burst in 2026, following a high in the S&P 500 in 2025.

Key takeaways:

  • Stock market short bets against Nvidia stand at about $34.4 billion, nearly twice as much as has been hedged against Apple, with some investors predicting that Nvidia's soaring share price will soon deflate.
  • Nvidia's valuation peaked at about $3.012 trillion this week, briefly making it the world's second most valuable company after Microsoft.
  • Some industry watchers predict that Nvidia will overtake Microsoft as the company with the highest market cap in the world, with steady revenue boosts expected in each of the four quarters in fiscal 2025.
  • Economic research firm Capital Economics predicts that the AI-fueled stock market bubble will burst in 2026, after first driving the S&P 500 to a high during 2025.
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