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Taiwan Holds Key Rate as It Weighs Trump, AI Uncertainties

Mar 20, 2025 - financialpost.com
Taiwan has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2%, the highest since 2008, as it navigates uncertainties related to potential chip tariffs from the Trump administration, the AI industry boom, and inflation concerns. The decision aligns with expectations from all 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of steady rates. Despite other countries like the UK and Canada lowering rates, Taiwan's central bank, led by Governor Yang Chin-long, is cautious about rate cuts, indicating they might occur only if inflation drops below 1.5%. The bank has adjusted its 2025 growth forecast slightly down to 3.05% but expects AI-related tech exports to bolster economic growth.

Taiwan's economy benefits from strong tech shipments amid the AI surge, with export orders rising 31.1% in February, surpassing estimates. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the largest company on the island, reported a 39% revenue increase in early 2025. However, there are concerns about the sustainability of the AI boom, especially after China's DeepSeek demonstrated a more cost-effective approach. Additionally, Taiwanese shares experienced significant foreign investor sell-offs, reflecting global uncertainties in the tech sector.

Key takeaways:

  • Taiwan's central bank held its benchmark interest rate at 2%, the highest since 2008, amid uncertainties like potential chip tariffs from the Trump administration and AI market outlook.
  • All 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected the rate to remain steady for the fourth consecutive quarter.
  • The central bank may raise its consumer price index forecast to 2.04% if prices for railway tickets, water, and power increase.
  • Taiwan's economy is supported by strong tech shipments during the AI boom, with export orders rising 31.1% in February, surpassing estimates.
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