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The 30 early-stage startups in 2025 most likely to become tech's next unicorns, according to a proprietary AI model known as 'Moneyball for VC'

Jan 23, 2025 - businessinsider.com
TRAC, a San Francisco-based early-stage venture firm, has developed an AI model to predict which startups are most likely to become unicorns, companies valued at over a billion dollars. The model, which uses data from over 30 sources, focuses on eliminating startups with a high probability of failure rather than picking winners. TRAC's approach emphasizes the importance of a select group of top investors, termed "SuperForecasters," in determining a startup's success. The firm claims that its identified companies have a one-in-five chance of becoming unicorns and has been effective at avoiding false positives in its investments.

In 2025, TRAC updated its list of 30 startups predicted to become the next unicorns, with valuations under $270 million and an average valuation of $149 million. Some notable startups on the list include Amplify, Anrok, Beacons, Beehiiv, and Canary Technologies, among others. These companies span various industries, from life insurance and sales tax platforms to e-commerce and guest management solutions. TRAC has made 61 seed investments without any losses, showcasing the potential accuracy and effectiveness of its AI model in venture capital.

Key takeaways:

  • TRAC developed an AI model to predict which early-stage startups are most likely to become unicorns, focusing on eliminating companies with a higher probability of failure.
  • The model uses data from over 30 sources and emphasizes the importance of top investors, termed "SuperForecasters," over founder backgrounds.
  • TRAC's updated list for 2025 includes 30 startups with an average valuation of $149 million, all identified as potential unicorns.
  • Some companies from TRAC's 2023 list have already achieved or are close to achieving unicorn status, demonstrating the model's predictive success.
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