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The Imminent Death of ChatGPT [and generative AI] is Greatly Exaggerated - Look at the Data

Aug 25, 2023 - synthedia.substack.com
The article discusses the ongoing debate about the future of generative AI, with skeptics like Gary Marcus arguing that it's not very effective and could be misused, while others highlight its adoption and revenue as indicators of its value. The author points out that despite criticisms, generative AI has shown significant adoption and revenue growth, with companies like ChatGPT reportedly generating hundreds of millions in annual revenue.

The author also mentions that many companies are struggling to deploy generative AI due to data management and security issues, but argues that these are typical challenges when adopting any new technology. The article concludes by suggesting that while generative AI may go through a "hype cycle" of inflated expectations followed by disillusionment, the current data suggests it has significant adoption and revenue momentum, indicating its potential staying power.

Key takeaways:

  • Despite skepticism from figures like Gary Marcus, generative AI is showing signs of strong adoption and revenue momentum, suggesting it has staying power.
  • Companies like a16z and ChatGPT are seeing significant growth and revenue, with ChatGPT potentially already being cash-flow positive.
  • Forecasts suggest generative AI could become a $1.3 trillion annual market by 2032, with user numbers expected to surpass 100 million next year in the U.S. alone.
  • While there may be a "hype cycle" at play, where the impact of the technology is overestimated in the short term and underestimated in the long term, the data suggests generative AI has significant potential for impact and productivity gains.
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