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The U.S. unicorns most likely to go public in 2025 | NVCA/PitchBook

Jan 14, 2025 - venturebeat.com
The PitchBook/NVCA Venture Monitor for Q4 2024 highlights a cautious optimism for the venture capital landscape in 2025, despite ongoing challenges. The report notes a steady increase in financings and investments, particularly in early-stage AI-focused transactions, but acknowledges issues like valuation mismatches and regulatory headwinds that hinder meaningful exits. The VC exit predictor tool by PitchBook assesses the likelihood of startups going public, with companies like Anduril and Mythical Games having a 97% chance of IPO in 2025. The report also mentions a shift in deal sizes, with fewer startups raising $1 million to $5 million compared to previous years.

Nizar Tarhuni of PitchBook and Bobby Franklin of NVCA express cautious optimism, citing potential regulatory changes and increased VC engagement in government roles as factors that could ease liquidity challenges and support innovation. The tax bill in Congress, aiming to incentivize innovation and reinstate the R&D tax credit, is seen as significant for the ecosystem. Despite these positive signs, fundraising may remain tepid, with larger venture platforms and established managers likely to benefit more.

Key takeaways:

  • Several U.S. unicorns, including Anduril and Mythical Games, are predicted to go public in 2025 with a high probability according to PitchBook.
  • The venture capital landscape in 2024 saw an increase in financings and investments, but challenges remain due to valuation mismatches and regulatory headwinds.
  • There is cautious optimism for 2025, with potential regulatory changes and a more business-friendly environment possibly encouraging more capital investment.
  • The largest category of deal count in 2024 was for startups raising $1 million to $5 million, although the number of deals has decreased since the peak in 2021.
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