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Theory Venture's Tomasz Tunguz unveils 2024 predictions: AI dominance, resurging Web3, and the new normal of tech investments | TechCrunch

Jan 04, 2024 - techcrunch.com
The article discusses predictions for the technology investing ecosystem in 2024, following a review of 2023. It anticipates that the IPO market will remain closed for the first half of the year, but significant issuances will reopen it, with seven venture-backed software IPOs expected. M&A activity is predicted to increase due to anticipated rate changes, with the total expected to surge above $60 billion, primarily driven by AI acquisitions. AI and data are expected to continue dominating the funding landscape, with AI becoming a core component of every product. The Bitcoin ETF is predicted to drive renewed interest in web3 financing, while U.S. VC deals are expected to sustain at about $200-$220 billion.

The article also predicts that AI regulation will become a critical topic in the U.S., especially in the context of the upcoming elections. AI-enabled searches are expected to account for 40% of all consumer searches, driven by changing consumer behavior patterns. Companies, particularly startups, are expected to report significant productivity improvements from AI, leading to reduced headcount growth but steady revenue growth. The average revenue per employee is expected to increase by 10%, twice the decade-long average, driven by the adoption and application of AI.

Key takeaways:

  • The IPO market is expected to remain closed for the first half of 2024, with a few significant issuances reopening it later in the year, primarily driven by companies with strong unit economics and cash flow.
  • M&A activity is predicted to increase throughout 2024, with the total value expected to surge above $60 billion, primarily driven by AI acquisitions.
  • AI and data will continue to dominate the funding landscape, with AI becoming a core component of every product and driving increased demand for data.
  • U.S. VC deals are expected to sustain at about $200-$220 billion in 2024, with AI businesses commanding a premium of about 10-15% to the market.
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