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What exactly are the economics of AI?

Aug 15, 2023 - garymarcus.substack.com
The article discusses the financial viability of Generative AI, with a focus on OpenAI. It suggests that while AI has been profitable in some cases, such as Google Search and Meta's ad sales, Generative AI has not yet proven to be as lucrative. The author cites a rumor suggesting that OpenAI could face bankruptcy by 2024 due to high operating costs and modest revenue. However, the author also provides reasons why OpenAI might still do well financially, including potential cost reductions, support from Microsoft, and the possibility of discovering a profitable use case.

The article also highlights potential challenges for OpenAI and Generative AI, such as the lack of a killer app, the possibility of novelty wearing off, and the difficulty of engineering reliable products from unstable technology. The author concludes by stating that the high valuations of Generative AI companies may not be justified and warns of the serious engineering risks involved. The future of Generative AI remains uncertain, and the author urges caution.

Key takeaways:

  • The popularity and financial success of Generative AI is still uncertain, with some arguing it could be a passing fad similar to the tulip mania of the 17th century.
  • While AI has been successful in certain areas such as Google Search and Meta's ad placement, Generative AI has not yet proven to be as profitable.
  • OpenAI, a company heavily invested in Generative AI, is rumored to be facing bankruptcy by 2024, although this claim is disputed.
  • There are several factors that could influence the financial success or failure of Generative AI, including the discovery of profitable use cases, the cost of operation, competition, and the reliability of the technology.
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