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When Perfect Risk Models Fail: The Human Factor

Jan 02, 2025 - forbes.com
The article by Adam Ennamli discusses the paradox in modern risk management, where sophisticated risk models fail due to human behavior overwhelming risk controls. Despite advanced systems, institutions like Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank suffered significant losses because of psychological patterns such as success bias, relationship override, and groupthink. The article emphasizes the need to bridge the gap between technical excellence and human psychology in risk management.

To address these challenges, financial institutions are implementing behavioral circuit breakers and monitoring soft signals to predict issues before they become apparent in quantitative metrics. The article highlights the importance of integrating AI with an understanding of human behavior, suggesting that successful risk management requires a combination of technical tools and insights into human psychology. It advocates for a gradual transformation in organizational culture, focusing on decision protocols, feedback loops, and systems that account for psychological risk factors, ultimately aiming to master both the science and art of risk management.

Key takeaways:

  • Human behavior can overwhelm sophisticated risk systems, leading to failures despite advanced risk models.
  • Three psychological patterns—success bias, relationship override, and group think—often contribute to major risk management failures.
  • Implementing behavioral risk controls requires significant investment in both financial resources and cultural change.
  • The future of risk management lies in combining technical tools with a deep understanding of human behavior to make better decisions.
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