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Why the next leaps towards AGI may be “born secret”

Dec 10, 2024 - news.bensbites.com
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) has recommended that Congress establish a "Manhattan Project-like" initiative to pursue Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This recommendation, part of the USCC's 2024 Annual Report, emphasizes the need for the U.S. to lead in AGI development, suggesting multiyear contracting authority and prioritization of AI-related projects. The report reflects the U.S. government's strategic interest in AGI as a potential economic and military advantage, highlighting the urgency of maintaining leadership in AI technology.

The concept of a "Manhattan Project-like" effort implies not only an intense focus on AGI development but also the establishment of a system of secrecy and classification similar to that of the original Manhattan Project. This includes the "born secret" doctrine, which classifies certain scientific and technical knowledge from the moment of its creation. The recommendation aligns with arguments made by Leopold Aschenbrenner, who has advocated for a U.S. AGI initiative, predicting its necessity by 2027-2028. The USCC's proposal suggests that the U.S. may be moving ahead of schedule in its pursuit of AGI leadership.

Key takeaways:

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  • The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) recommends a "Manhattan Project-like" program to achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), emphasizing its importance for national security and technological leadership.
  • The USCC report suggests providing multiyear contracting authority and funding to advance U.S. AGI leadership, and prioritizing AI-related projects through the Defense Priorities and Allocations System.
  • Leopold Aschenbrenner's essays argue for a U.S. Manhattan Project for AI, predicting AGI by 2027 and Superintelligence by the end of the decade, highlighting the strategic importance of infrastructure and compute resources.
  • The term "Manhattan Project-like" implies not only an all-out effort but also a system of secrecy and classification, similar to the original Manhattan Project's "born secret" doctrine.
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