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Windows 10's farewell tour – not AI PCs – set to drive laptop sales in 2025

Nov 27, 2024 - theregister.com
The global laptop market is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2025, driven by commercial upgrade cycles and the end of Windows 10, rather than demand for AI-capable PCs, according to Taiwan-based market watcher TrendForce. Despite economic and political instability causing cautious demand in 2024, the firm still expects annual shipments to total 174 million units, a 3.9% year-on-year increase. TrendForce believes the political uncertainty following the US presidential election is subsiding and that rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will stimulate capital flow, leading to a stronger recovery for the commercial market in 2025.

However, the demand for AI PCs has been sluggish due to high pricing and confusion over the new category. AI-capable PCs currently carry a 10-15% price premium over standard PCs, a factor that needs to change to boost sales. The confusion arises from differing definitions of AI PCs by vendors. Despite this, the IT channel is stocking up on AI-capable PCs in anticipation of increased sales. TrendForce also warns that the global laptop market is closely tied to US trade policies and could be impacted by any heightened import tariffs introduced by the Trump administration.

Key takeaways:

  • The global laptop market is expected to grow by 4.9 percent in 2025, driven by commercial upgrade cycles and the end of Windows 10, rather than demand for AI-capable PCs.
  • Despite economic and political instability in 2024, laptop shipments are expected to total 174 million units, a 3.9 percent year-on-year increase.
  • AI-capable PCs currently carry a 10-15 percent price premium over standard PCs, and confusion over the definition of an AI PC is causing hesitancy among businesses.
  • The global laptop market is closely tied to US trade policies, with any heightened import tariffs potentially impacting the market. China remains the dominant manufacturing hub for laptop production, accounting for about 89 percent of total capacity.
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